February 28, 2008

• On Hillary Clinton

  "What I've found interesting is how at every step along the way, her worst enemy has been - herself.

  In December, she had more money - $175 million. She had more name
  recognition. She had her husband's legacy. She had the support of more
  super delegates.

  And then - it's like she didn't know how to campaign. Looking back, I
  realize she's never had to campaign before. Let's face it - liberal
  area of New York against unknown, underfinanced Republican rivals isn't
  a real challenge.

  But she neglected all of the "to dos": She didn't keep up with what her
  campaign was spending money on. She didn't have a constant message
  (first it was "experience", then "experience to bring change", then "I
  have solutions", and so on). She went negative right after the surprise
  loss in Iowa - and not "Obama's position is this, here's why mine is
  better", but trying to paint him as "not really pro-choice", "he's a
  former drug user", "he voted for funding the war just like I did. The
  lawsuits in Nevada, then telling people what states "mattered" and
  which "didn't matter".

  Obama got on the ground folks working - going door to door. Finding out
  what areas were key to his winning to get more delegates. She decided
  that her lead in big states were enough - and she ignored the majority
  of small states like Idaho, Utah, etc which - while not significant in
  and of themselves in the Democratic primary - start to add up.
  According to reports, her team didn't even have people in the ground in
  Texas and Ohio until two weeks ago - Obama's folks had people working
  there nearly a month back!

  In the debates, it's the same thing: she hurts herself more. Her little
  "Oh, you need to REJECT Farrakan" moment actually helped Obama out - if
  she had kept her mouth shut, he would have looked vaguely neutral for
  it.

  The times that she's done the best is when she really connects. Her
  commercial in Ohio about "She's worked the night shift too" actually
  moved me a bit - it shows hey, I actually care. What was Bill Clinton's
  #1 success in his first campaign? Playing the sax, reminding people he
  was human, and showing them that "Hey, I feel your pain." Her Thursday
  night speech about being proud being with Obama and meeting veterans
  was a connecting moment.

  Had she used more of those connecting moments, she might have kept her
  voting base, and added on more. Instead, she tried to divide and
  conquer, and got lost along the way.

  When history books are written about this campaign, they'll likely say
  that Hilary Clinton had the best shot of them all at becoming the next
  Democratic nominee for President - and then messed it up by being
  disorganized, not focused on a positive message, and fell apart. Funny
  - David Brin once gave a talk about how when Democrats talk about the
  future and how things will be better, they win. When they get mired in
  speaking about "the good old days" like conservatives - they lose.
  That's how Bill won in the 1990's - "There's nothing wrong in America
  that can't be fixed by what's right in America". Hopefully, looking
  forward to new challenges. Whether you think he delivered is another
  thing - but that message got him in the white house (well, Ross Perot
  helped as well ).

  Odd that Senator Clinton didn't get the lesson - and Senator Obama, the "inexperienced, naive candidate" got it so much better."

  -digg's johnhummel

  • 10:20 am
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